2 Nov 2015

We have good reasons to believe that the cause of this tragedy was the result of mid-air high altitude explosive decompression. This time the probable cause of the disaster was the separation of the aft pressure bulkhead. This aircraft was a very old, many past owners airliner that was (regardless of exculpatory statements), poorly maintained since it became part of a “Bargain flight fleet”. What do you think? Its parent company had not paid its maintenance employees for over 2 months.

Kogalymavia Flight 9268 (7K9268/KGL9268) was an international chartered passenger flight operated by Russian airline (branded as Metrojet), which crashed in northern Sinai, on October 2015 at 04: 13 UTC(06:13 USA- EST) following departure from Sharm el Sheikh International Sharm, Egypt, en route to Pulkovo Airport, Saint Petersburg, Russia.

THE AIRCRAFT, AN AIRBUS A321-231, was carrying 217 passengers and seven (7) crew members; of those, mostly were tourists. The majority were Russian, four (4) were Ukranian, and one was Belarusian. With a total death toll of 224 people, it is also the deadliest air crash involving an aircraft from the Airbus A320 family, and the deadliest plane crash for a Russian airline.

TO VISUALIZE THE PROBABLE CAUSE of the explosive decompression event, one needs to think of an airliner as a huge flying thermos-bottle filled with compressed air with about a 6 pound per square inch pressure differential from outside air at altitude. Now then the aft end of the pressure vessel consists of a normally semi-spherical aluminum “pressure bulkhead” firmly attached to the fuselage (body of the plane)  This particular aircraft was old, had many flight hours, and in its old age fell into disrepair. A few years earlier the aircraft had a hard, tail first landing which no doubt weakened the aft pressure bulkhead, but after the customary repairs, and inspections were made, it was once more considered “airworthy”. We believe the entire tail (empennage) aft end complete with vertical and horizontal stabilizer; blew off (parted company with the rest of the plane) severing hydraulic lines electrical wires, etc. An absolutely catastrophic event. Normally, in this type of event, the tail end that separated will fall to the ground more slowly because of of its large, un-aerodynamic shape (catches more wind);that is the reason there have even been survivors found in the tail. Aljazeera did today show many pictures which clearly show the aft pressure bulkhead, and the tail section of the plane nearby, consistent with our thinking. Perhaps the worst tragedy of this kind involved the loss of a Japanese Air Line Boeing 747 jumbo jet (Queen of the skies) JAL Flight 123.

THE CRASH OF JAPAN AIRLINES FLIGHT 123 on August 12, 1985 is the single-aircraft disaster with the highest number of fatalities: 520 died on board a Boeing 747 The aircraft suffered an explosive decompression resulting from an incorrectly repaired aft pressure bulkhead, which failed in mid flight, destroying most of its vertical stabilizer, and severing all of the hydraulic lines, making the 747 virtually uncontrollable. In a feat of Remarkable airmanship, Pilots were able to keep the plane flying for 32 minutes after the mechanical failure, before crashing into a mountain. Remarkably, several people survived, but by the time the Japanese rescue teams arrived at the crash site, all aboard had perished, except for four (4) survivors. Unfortunately, in this case dispensations had been granted by Japanese aeronautical authorities to carry extra passengers on the premise that the average Japanese person weighed less than other passengers.

In this incident, finger-pointing has already began, as well as the “who, me!” We can be sure Russia, Egypt and Airbus Industries will disclaim all responsibilities. Next will come lies from the investigators, about the two (2) Black (orange) boxes contents. They have both been found, and will no doubt tell the true story- even if the public never hears it. The “big hush” is already quite notable. The lesson in this for many of us is to be weary of flying on “fly by cut-rate airlines”. Indonesia’s A320 crash last year taught us a very valuable lesson in this regard.

Our heart-felt condolences go out to the so many people that more than 200 casualties can create, and the truncated expectations of so many people who loved them, and are now grieving.

Edward Oliver Gonzalez (gonzedo)

P.S. The author worked for many years as an aircraft designer




November 2, 2015 at 1:16 PM Comments (0)